Moonbird Predictor

Input a comma-separated series of human-assigned probabilties (between 0 and 1) to get Moonbird Predictor's best guess at the likelihood of the event happening. Slightly outperforms naive averaging in validation against PredictionBook data!
Proposition
Prediction
Jeremy 2024 Donald trump will have a landslide vuctory 0.771
Testicular TM 0.773
321456; Mehmet Erbaş 0.773
The eagles don't win the superbowl 0.530
I think the steelers will beat the packers 0.759
Apple officially announces a folding screen device by EoY 2027. 0.622
Eagles win superbowl 0.530
Treasury to instruct the Fed to revalue U.S. gold deposits at $8,000/oz or more before 3Q26 0.287
Russia uses a tactical nuclear warhead in the Ukraine war between Nov 2023 – Feb 2025. 0.550
Elon Musk will run for a political office in 2024 0.687
Elon Musk will attempt to run for president in 2024 0.171
Fewer people globally will die of deseases 0.768
PredictionBook will transition to read-only mode as originally stated. 0.876
Q3 2023 recession by NBER 0.759
Q2 2023 recession by NBER 0.693
27 USC 174 incremental revenues TY22+TY23 < 57.1 0.771
Bank Term Funding Program renewed or other liquidity for banks' U.S. Treasuries provided on or before expiration 0.759
BJP will win India's Lok Sabha 2024 Elections 0.693
Narendra Modi will not be PM after India's Lok Sabha 2024 0.100
SpaceX most valuable company in the world by 2060 0.660
01490734 —> curiga paraganglioma dd myxoid ependymoma 0.622
Massa psoas sign? Hasil PA 0.426
(John Brady) – David Hambly will buy drinks at path update 2024 for complaining about work. 0.660
My directness in communication will increase proportional to the amount of life expereinces that I have. I will also be less tolerant towards people trying to be dishonest for the sake of being polite. 0.720
80k will give personal 1:1 advice to Prownie 0.323
I will reach 175lbs body weight by the Oahu marathon 0.530
the dallas cowboys will not win the superbowl 0.773
A room temperature, ambient pressure superconductor is used in household appliances by 2050 0.074
A room temperature, ambient pressure superconductor is used in household appliances by 2040 0.065
A room temperature, ambient pressure superconductor is used in household appliances by 2030 0.061
General consensus that LK-99 or some component of it is a room temp superconductor by Sept 1, 2024 0.047
65616211 – subependymoom 0.426
Will my brother call me/want to talk with me in the next two weeks? 0.197
Alien invasion, real or faked by end of 2025. 0.043
SPR below 300M by end of H1 2024 0.530
SPR below 341M by end of 2024 0.741
I in 3 years 0.660
I in 2 years 0.426
Páncreas adenocarcinoma 5885272 0.622
Metástasis hemorragicas 7061675 0.693
Ectasia ductal 0.530
Above 45°C temperature record in germany as of 2050 0.530
Above 45°C temperature record in germany as of 2030 0.197
Zuckerberg wins against Musk (cond the match happens, cond no technology used in/immediately before battle) 0.674